According to WPB, Singapore’s bitumen market is facing a deeper physical supply squeeze, with exports falling 62.5% year on year between April and August while a key FOB assessment returned to $660/MT in September. The pressure is increasingly being driven by refinery feedstock constraints and limited spot availability rather than price movements alone.
Singapore exported approximately 430,511 MT of bitumen between April and August 2026, down 62.5% from the same period of 2025. August shipments dropped to only 68,358 MT from 225,930 MT a year earlier, representing a 69.7% year-on-year decline.
The contraction has persisted for several months. Exports declined by around 73.1% in May, 70.4% in June, 61.6% in July and 69.7% in August compared with the corresponding months of 2025, indicating that the decline is broader than a temporary loading disruption.
Physical tightness has now returned to the price structure. A widely followed assessment placed FOB Singapore penetration-grade 60/70 bitumen at $660/MT on September 11, the highest level since April 2026.
WPB’s own weekly pricing provides additional context, although the methodologies should not be compared as identical benchmarks. WPB assessed Singapore bulk 60/70 at $660 ±5/MT FOB in Week 4 of August and $650 ±5/MT in Week 1 of September, while drum material was assessed at $720 ±5/MT.
The September 11 assessment therefore should not be described simply as a direct $10 increase from WPB’s previous figure. What the separate indicators show more clearly is that Singapore remains an expensive supply hub despite short-term price fluctuations, with cargo availability increasingly determining executable transactions.
Recent October-loading negotiations reinforce that picture. Workable discussions have been concentrated around $645–660/MT FOB Singapore, while sellers have shown limited urgency to conclude deals even near the upper end of that range.
This suggests that loading windows and confirmed cargo availability are becoming almost as important as headline price. Buyers may see a nominal offer, but securing the actual volume within the required delivery schedule has become a separate challenge.
The roots of the shortage lie partly inside the refinery system. Singapore’s bitumen production depends on access to suitable heavy crude and the residual streams generated from processing those barrels, but sufficient feedstock has become more difficult to secure.
Market indications point to very uneven production across the refining system. Some facilities have supplied little visible spot material, while others have faced feedstock shortages, specification problems or intermittent production that has prevented part of their output from entering the open market.
One intermittently operating producer is estimated to be making roughly 30,000–40,000 MT of bitumen per month. Much of that volume is already committed under term contracts, leaving only a limited portion available for spot buyers.
This distinction between total refinery production and spot supply has become critical. A plant may continue producing significant volumes while the open market remains tight because contractual commitments and off-specification production reduce the amount that can actually be traded.
Heavy crude availability is at the centre of the problem. Singapore refiners have relied on suitable heavy barrels from sources including Canada and, at times, the Middle East, but current availability has not been sufficient to support a rapid increase in bitumen production.
The refining decision is also economic rather than purely technical. The same heavy feedstock can support other residual products, particularly fuel oil, meaning refiners must continuously compare the return from producing bitumen with alternative uses of the material.
This explains why higher bitumen prices do not automatically trigger higher output. Even when the bitumen margin is attractive, a refinery may still favour fuel oil if the same feedstock can generate greater commercial value or substantially larger saleable volumes.
That competition has intensified as the high-sulfur fuel oil market has strengthened. The front-month Singapore 380 CST HSFO crack against Brent improved to around minus $2.47/b on September 11 from minus $3.67/b on September 10, while the margin had strengthened by more than 50% over the preceding week.
For bitumen buyers, this creates a supply constraint that cannot be solved simply by higher offers. If fuel oil remains competitive for the same residual feedstock, refiners may have limited incentive to redirect enough material toward bitumen to quickly rebuild spot availability.
The tightening is no longer confined to Singapore. Market indications suggest South Korean producers are also facing constraints in securing suitable heavy feedstock, increasing interest in Chinese material as the region searches for replacement supply.
China is consequently becoming more important in the regional balance. Chinese cargoes can partially compensate for reduced availability elsewhere, although their effectiveness depends on export volumes, grade specifications, freight and loading schedules.
Demand is also providing support. Australia has maintained strong bitumen consumption during 2026 and is approaching a more active seasonal period, while infrastructure activity continues to support domestic demand within Singapore.
Some buyers facing fixed construction schedules have shown willingness to absorb substantially higher replacement costs when material becomes scarce. Reports of end-user tolerance for prices in the $700–800/MT range should not be treated as a general Singapore benchmark, but they demonstrate how security of supply can outweigh price for urgent requirements.
A similar shift in purchasing priorities is visible in India. Some buyers have considered more Iraqi material despite differences from their usual sourcing preferences, highlighting how product availability and execution reliability are becoming increasingly important when traditional supply channels are constrained.
Middle Eastern shipping disruptions add another layer to the problem. Bitumen may be physically available at origin, but vessel availability, secure routing, insurance and delivery timing can prevent that supply from replacing missing Singapore barrels quickly.
These conditions have led some market participants to consider a return toward $700/MT FOB Singapore possible if the shortage persists. That remains a market expectation rather than a confirmed forecast and will depend on feedstock availability, refinery allocation decisions, regional demand and competing fuel-oil economics.
A separate model-derived Singapore reference stood near $668/MT for 60/70 bitumen on September 11. Because that figure is indicative rather than a firm tradeable quotation, it should not be compared directly with physical market assessments, but it provides another signal that underlying reference values remain elevated.
The most important indicator, however, may be the export data rather than any single price assessment. A 62.5% decline over five months, combined with an almost 70% year-on-year fall in August alone, points to a significant reduction in the amount of Singapore-origin material reaching overseas markets.
For asphalt producers and traders, the result is a different purchasing environment. Origin, specification, cargo confirmation, loading window, freight and the ability to execute a shipment are increasingly determining the real value of a deal.
For refiners, two variables will be decisive: whether more suitable heavy crude becomes available and whether bitumen can compete economically with fuel oil for the same residual streams. Without improvement in both areas, elevated bitumen prices alone may not be enough to produce a rapid supply response.
Singapore’s current market therefore represents more than a five-month price high. The combination of sharply lower exports, constrained heavy feedstock, reduced spot availability and stronger competing fuel-oil economics points to a tighter underlying supply structure across the Asian bitumen market.
By WPB
Singapore Bitumen, Bitumen 60/70, FOB Singapore, Bitumen Exports, Heavy Crude, Refinery Feedstock, Fuel Oil, HSFO, Singapore Refining, Bitumen Supply, Spot Market, South Korea, China Bitumen, Australia, India, Bitumen Prices, Asphalt, Asian Bitumen Market
