According to WPB, China’s bitumen market has continued to strengthen in September even as crude oil prices eased, pushing the front of the market back above CNY 5,400/MT. The move is increasingly being supported by tight inventories and firmer road-sector buying rather than crude costs alone.
A widely followed Chinese bitumen price series stood at CNY 5,432/MT on September 18, compared with CNY 4,764/MT on September 1. On a like-for-like basis, that represents an increase of roughly 14% in less than three weeks.
The rise has not followed a straight line. Prices moved through CNY 5,000 in the second week of September, reached CNY 5,441/MT on September 15 and remained around the CNY 5,400 level later in the week, showing that the market has retained much of its recent gain despite daily volatility.
What makes the latest move more notable is the divergence from crude. On September 19, Brent fell about 1.2% and WTI nearly 1.9%, while the Chinese bitumen front-month indicator remained around CNY 5,432/MT and strengthened on the day.
That separation suggests the market is no longer simply following crude higher. Domestic fundamentals have become more important, particularly the amount of bitumen available at refineries and commercial storage sites as road projects move deeper into the autumn construction window.
Inventory data underline that pressure. By September 17, bitumen stocks held at Chinese refineries had fallen to around 451,000 MT, down 9.6% from the previous week and 33.6% from a year earlier.
Stocks outside refineries were even tighter. Commercial and social inventories were estimated at roughly 569,000 MT, falling 13.5% in a week and standing 64.5% below the corresponding level of 2025.
The decline was particularly visible in North China, Shandong, East China and parts of the northwest. Intermittent refinery shutdowns and lower operating rates have reduced available material, while buyers preparing for road work have continued to draw stocks out of the system.
This does not mean every part of China is trading at the same price. Physical quotations remain highly regional, reflecting refinery origin, specification, freight and local availability.
Recent market indications for road-grade material ranged from around CNY 5,200/MT in some western markets to more than CNY 6,000/MT across parts of central, southwestern and eastern China. Individual refinery quotations for AH-70 and related road grades have been reported even higher, in some cases approaching CNY 7,000/MT or above.
The futures market therefore provides a useful directional signal, but it should not be treated as a single nationwide spot price. The physical market remains fragmented, and buyers are paying different replacement costs depending on location and grade.
Another important signal is the relationship between bitumen and fuel oil. On September 19, the front-month fuel-oil indicator was around CNY 4,297/MT while bitumen stood near CNY 5,432/MT, leaving a premium of approximately CNY 1,135/MT.
That spread matters because bitumen and fuel oil compete for some of the same heavy refinery streams, including material derived from vacuum residue. When the economics move strongly in favour of bitumen, refiners have a greater incentive to direct suitable residual material toward paving products, although operational constraints mean the response is neither immediate nor uniform.
Some Chinese facilities have already adjusted production patterns. Market data during September show individual plants returning to bitumen production or converting units toward asphalt output, while other refineries have continued to operate intermittently or at reduced rates.
As a result, higher prices do not necessarily mean the Chinese market is about to be flooded with new production. Available feedstock, refinery configuration, maintenance schedules and competing fuel-oil economics still determine how much additional bitumen can actually reach buyers.
Demand is also becoming more supportive. Road and infrastructure projects in eastern and southern China have entered a more active period, increasing withdrawals of both conventional road bitumen and modified grades.
The strength of bitumen is particularly notable against the wider Chinese economy, where property investment and broader fixed-asset investment remain weak. The current support is therefore better understood as a road-sector and inventory story rather than evidence of a broad construction boom.
This distinction is important for the outlook. If road-sector consumption remains firm while refinery and commercial stocks stay low, bitumen prices could remain elevated even if crude loses some of its recent strength.
A recovery in refinery output would change that balance. Higher production, improved feedstock availability or slower project demand could rebuild inventories and narrow the premium that has developed between bitumen and competing refinery products.
For regional buyers, China’s stronger domestic market also matters beyond its borders. China has increasingly acted as a balancing source for Asian bitumen when availability from Singapore and South Korea becomes restricted, but rising Chinese prices can reduce the attractiveness of those export barrels.
That is particularly relevant now. Singapore is already dealing with severely reduced exports and limited spot availability, while parts of the South Korean market have also faced feedstock constraints.
A more expensive Chinese domestic market could therefore remove some of the flexibility that Asian buyers have relied on when traditional supply hubs tighten. Whether Chinese exporters continue offering competitive cargoes will depend on the margin between domestic sales and export opportunities.
The main signal from September is therefore not simply that Chinese bitumen has risen above CNY 5,400/MT. Prices are holding up while crude softens because inventories are low, road-sector demand is drawing material from the system and refinery economics are giving bitumen a strong value relative to other residual products.
For the next stage of the market, inventories may matter more than crude alone. If refinery stocks continue falling while road activity remains firm, the Chinese bitumen market could stay tight even without another major rise in international oil prices.
By WPB
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